Israeli military vehicles were seen crossing back into Israel from southern Lebanon on Wednesday, raising cautious hopes of a partial withdrawal, though Tel Aviv has made no official announcement.
The US-brokered ceasefire, in place since April 16 and extended to mid-May, remains extremely fragile. Hezbollah claims over 500 Israeli violations, while Israel continues striking what it describes as Hezbollah military infrastructure almost daily.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar was unambiguous in Berlin: “Israel has no territorial ambitions in Lebanon, but Hezbollah must be destroyed.” His German counterpart Johann Wadephul backed the stance fully: “There is every right for Israel to be there.”
Markets remain deeply skeptical. The probability of a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by May 31 stands at just 2.4%.